Friday, Dec. 20, 2013
The worst is yet to comePosted Monday, October 1, 2012, at 12:11 PM
You can expect, dear reader, that 2013 will have more economic suffering than 2012.
It doesn't really matter who wins the election.
The incentive to manipulate the economy's image will be gone after the election whether it is an elephant or donkey parked in the White House.
Presently, the dollar is winning the "least ugly" contest.
Europe has been debasing its currency every bit as aggressively as the U.S.
As there continue to be runs on the banks of Greece, Spain and Portugal, the EU will almost certainly print more fiat money to breech the gaps.
In world trade, the Euro is secondly only to the dollar and the primary counterbalance to the dollar.
The condition of the dollar is ugly. The Euro is worse.
The Yen, Yuan, Ruble, Rupee and others aren't even close. As the dollar is presently least ugly, investors and traders are moving into dollars and dollar denominated assets.
Now that we are printing money again for round three of quantitative easting, we will have to see if we get more ugly in investor's eyes.
A result of being least ugly, gold, silver, oil and other currency sensitive commodities had been falling in price relative to the increased value of the dollar.
With the advent of renewed QE, commodities have started heading back up.
This means when we head to the grocery next year and see the rising prices, expect to see various renditions of Fred Sanford holding his heart, staggering and announcing, "Elizabeth, I'm comin' to meet you!"
Compounding the problem is a large multinational push to eliminate the dollar as the settlement medium for oil.
On Sept. 7, Russia and China announced an agreement where Russia would sell unlimited quantities of oil to China for either Chinese Yuan or Russian Rubles.
Mexico is also in the process of closing a deal to sell oil to China for Yuan or Pesos.
China is also trying to complete a deal with Canada to buy the oil that would have flowed down the Keystone Pipeline to us.
China is aggressively trying to make the Yuan the world reserve currency and has made settlement agreements with Brazil and Japan to settle in Yuan.
Additionally, in April 2010, some 200 oil sheiks met in Abu Dhabi where a general consensus was reached that Arab oil producers should shift out of dollars into other currencies.
This would be the beginning of the end of the dollar as the world reserve currency and an explosion of inflation as those dollars came home.
Our problem is that we simply run an empire all wrong.
The Spanish American war brought to us the Philippines, Guam, Puerto Rico and Guantanamo Bay Cuba.
Empires grow and survive so long as the resources extracted from conquest exceed the cost of operating the military.
Starting with World War II, with every military victory, we pay our adversary to rebuild and modernize.
We don't want to see any more post World War II Germanys, which could lead to more war.
We pay billions for our wars, then billions more to our defeated enemies.
The only true winners are the Daddy Warbucks types who supply either the war machine or the peace machine.
A smart empire extracts resources from vassal states and brings wealth to the seat of the empire.
These days, we give billions upon billions of dollars to virtually every country on earth. We are enriching the nations of the earth at our expense.
How can a nation pay for this without quietly stealing from the citizens by inflating the currency?
This is exactly what we have done.
As we continue to pay wealthy Iraqis and bribe the corrupt in Afghanistan and Pakistan, we are settling our sights on Syria and Iran.
Sincere enemies to be sure. Enemies that in all likelihood should be destroyed.
In fact, Iran probably should have been taken out a long time ago. But at what cost?
Finally, recent news reports reveal that approximately 50 percent of all American households receive one or more federal "benefit" payments.
Politicians, known the world over for their cowardice, are acutely aware of what happened in Greece when "austerity" was sincerely considered.
The incumbent politicians lost their jobs and candidates promising more payments to the people took their places.
We already have $99 trillion in unfunded federal obligations; benefits promised to voters not yet funded.
How will these obligations be met?
The only way is to print more dollars and reduce the value of the obligation.
The way I see it, the writing is already on the wall.
It doesn't matter who wins the White House, sooner or later, within our lifetimes, the dollar as we know it is done.
Remember, dear readers, empires inevitably collapse first from within Then come the barbarian hoards.
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