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Tuesday, June 28, 2016
Election PredictionPosted Monday, November 5, 2012, at 1:19 PM
It has been a difficult week or so for me.
This has interfered with three intended columns.
Moreover, it will keep this one quite short.
Mark Twain once famously said that figures don't lie, but liars sure can figure.
When it comes to politics, does any more need to be said?
National polls suggest that Mitt Romney will win the popular vote.
Local polls suggest that President Obama will win the battleground states and win the electoral vote.
It strikes me as quite odd that the state polls and national polls would be so divergent.
Somehow, it just doesn't figure.
Assuming that the people are more or less evenly divided between the candidates, it will all come down to who has more supporters show up and vote.
My prediction is that Mitt Romney will win both the popular vote and the electoral vote.
I predict this because I believe that President Obama's supporters are much less motivated this year than Mitt Romney's supporters.
I don't expect that the margins of victory in any battleground state to be large, but, in total, enough to dissuade the President from challenging the results in court.
Let the campaign for 2016 begin!
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