[The Brazil Times nameplate] Overcast ~ 31°F  
High: 38°F ~ Low: 24°F
Friday, Dec. 19, 2014

Election Prediction

Posted Monday, November 5, 2012, at 1:19 PM

It has been a difficult week or so for me.

This has interfered with three intended columns.

Moreover, it will keep this one quite short.

Mark Twain once famously said that figures don't lie, but liars sure can figure.

When it comes to politics, does any more need to be said?

National polls suggest that Mitt Romney will win the popular vote.

Local polls suggest that President Obama will win the battleground states and win the electoral vote.

It strikes me as quite odd that the state polls and national polls would be so divergent.

Somehow, it just doesn't figure.

Assuming that the people are more or less evenly divided between the candidates, it will all come down to who has more supporters show up and vote.

My prediction is that Mitt Romney will win both the popular vote and the electoral vote.

I predict this because I believe that President Obama's supporters are much less motivated this year than Mitt Romney's supporters.

I don't expect that the margins of victory in any battleground state to be large, but, in total, enough to dissuade the President from challenging the results in court.

Let the campaign for 2016 begin!


Comments
Showing most recent comments first
[Show in chronological order instead]

it seems to me, every voter's vote should count. wasn't the electoral college started due to lack of quick communication years ago? many of us lost our vote because of the EC. we now have quick results and I really see no need of the EC at this time in America.

-- Posted by Tracy Jones on Tue, Nov 13, 2012, at 10:57 PM

I predict that at exactly 12:01 am Wednesday morning the 2016 campaign will commence. I further predict that begining sometime after December 20th we will not hear again about the electoral college mess for another 4 years.

-- Posted by kayanddavid on Tue, Nov 6, 2012, at 6:07 PM


Respond to this blog

Posting a comment requires free registration. If you already have an account, enter your username and password below. Otherwise, click here to register.

Username:

Password:  (Forgot your password?)

Your comments:
Please be respectful of others and try to stay on topic.


Hear me out
by Charles Hear
Recent posts
Archives
Blog RSS feed [Feed icon]
Comments RSS feed [Feed icon]
Login
Hot topics
Ferguson
(1 ~ 10:34 PM, Dec 4)

Recipe for Unrest
(0 ~ 5:35 PM, Nov 17)

Hero Worship
(1 ~ 6:56 AM, Nov 13)

Lessons From the Farm
(2 ~ 11:03 PM, Nov 8)

Don't Panic!
(2 ~ 10:02 PM, Oct 14)