Once again this year I've looked at many different factors when coming up with my "Winter Outlook." I looked at ocean temperature profiles off the coast of Asia, the Gulf of Alaska, the central Pacific Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, the east coast of the United States and off the coast of Europe. I compared these to profiles of past years to come up with similar patterns.
I looked at the El Nino and La Nina patterns of years in the past and compared this year's water temperature profile to those years. I considered the active hurricane season since those storms are caused by warm ocean water. I compared this last hurricane season to others similar to it. I looked at many upper air patterns and compared to other years to come up with more similar comparisons.
I did lots of research with local weather patterns from summer and fall to come up with trends in weather patterns in this area. I used information on volcanic activity worldwide and snow cover comparisons in northern North America and the United States.
As I do every year, I used "analogs" which are years in the past that had similar weather patterns both locally and worldwide. After taking the listed information along with other bits of information and hours of calculating, I came up with this year's winter outlook.
2005 - 2006 Winter Outlook: Jesse's Predictions
1. An early start to winter (some cold and snow early)
2. First measurable snow by Dec. 5
3. Winter of extremes
4. Windy winter
5. NO white Christmas
6. Larger than normal temperature swings
(60 degrees / month on average)
(75-degree swing from coldest to warmest for the winter)
7. There will be three sub-zero days (average is four)
8. Most snow will come in January
9. There will NOT be a pattern "lock" for greater than 10 days (meaning no below or above normal temperature pattern for that long or longer)
10. There will be 10 "snow days" (days with at least 1/2 inch of snow -- average is eight)
11. There will be no snow over 7 inches at one time
12. Temperatures will be slightly BELOW normal
Normal is 31.0 degrees
Forecast is 30.2 degrees
13. Precipitation will be BELOW normal
Normal is 7.93"
Forecast is 6.75"
14. Snow will be slightly ABOVE normal
Normal is 19.0"
Forecast is 20.0"