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820 days of Spanish Flu vs. 346 days of COVID-19
Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization as of January 3, 2021, the Brazil Times created the following comparison of the deadly Spanish Flu to the current COVID-19 pandemic.
SPANISH FLU OUTBREAK
During the officially estimated 820 days from 1918-1920, the Spanish Flu virus affected one-third of the world’s population (1.8 billion), with an estimated more than 500,000,000 infected (27.77%) and 50,000,000 deaths (2.777778% of the population) reported worldwide.
In America (103.2 million population), the virus, later identified as H1N1, is considered the most lethal in modern history, resulting in 650,000 deaths (.629845%). At the time, doctors didn’t know influenza viruses even existed. Medical technology, pharmacology, and diagnostic testing were limited or were not created. Penicillin was not invented until 1928, and there were no flu antiviral drugs available. Critical care measures, such as intensive care support and mechanical ventilation, also were not available in 1918.
Coordinated pandemic plans were non-existent in 1918; however, some communities implemented mitigation measures, such as wearing cloth face coverings, closing schools, banning public gatherings, and issuing isolation or quarantine orders.
The federal government took no centralized role in planning or initiating these interventions during the 1918 pandemic.
(Read more about “1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus)” on the CDC website at www.cdc.gov.)
COVID-19 OUTBREAK
The current coronavirus pandemic - COVID-19 - originated in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The first laboratory-confirmed case of COVID-19 was confirmed on January 20, 2020, in America, and reported to CDC two days later.
During the subsequent 346 days, current data available from the World Health Organization (data available on December 30, 2020) shows COVID-19 cases are increasing worldwide, infecting 83,264,353 (1.03556%) of the 7.8 billion people and 1,816,164 deaths reported (.229%).
In America, 19,432,125 COVID-19 cases (5.8707%) have been reported among the 331 million residents, with 337,419 deaths reported (.102%).
The available treatments, diagnostics, and technology for the current pandemic are more advanced than 100 years ago, including the availability of rapid testing, antiviral drugs, ventilators, and vaccines.
There are surveillance networks like the WHO and the CDC, which monitor seasonal flu viruses and the emergence of novel viruses while assisting countries worldwide.
The CDC issued general guidelines at the beginning of the pandemic in America to help slow the spread of the virus similar to those used during the Spanish Flu, including:
Wear face coverings/masks
Practice 6-foot social distancing
Wash hands regularly with soap and water for 20 seconds, or use hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol for proper hygiene.
Stay home in isolation if you are sick or are in close contact with someone who has COVID-19.
(Learn more about “COVBID-19” on the CDC website at www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019.)
ANTI MASK DEBATE
A hundred years ago, the debate over masks began during the Spanish Flu pandemic, and it continues today.
When the Spanish Flu arrived in San Francisco in the fall of 1918, the city passed an ordinance requiring everyone to wear a mask while in public or a group of two or more people, except at mealtime. Failure of a person to wear a mask or not properly wearing one could lead to police warnings, charges of disturbing the peace, and subsequent violations of stricter fines or incarceration.
The first ordinance was annulled in November 1918, with a new one taking effect in January 1919. (This last ordinance was lifted February 1, 1919, on the Board of Health’s recommendation.)
The Anti-Mask League of San Francisco organized to protest the ordinance, although an estimated 80% of the residents initially complied.
The heated debate centered on objections the cloth masks were useless against the Flu, while others considered it an infringement of civil liberties. Making the issue even harder to understand, health officers could not come to a unified agreement on whether the masks were necessary or not.
A 1919 health study muddied the debate, even more, stating masks were not effective in the way expected. The conclusion cited the likely reasons for the ineffectiveness: masks, made of inadequate materials, were only worn outdoors and not used inside during gatherings where conditions for transmission was higher.
In 2020, although medical historians have partly attributed the decline in deaths 100 years ago from the influenza pandemic in San Francisco to the mandatory mask-wearing policies, today’s COVID-19 mask guidelines have sparked another heated public debate.
Health officials are currently encouraging the public to wear cloth face coverings (preserving the more efficient N95 masks for frontline and healthcare workers). Masks are to be worn whenever they leave their homes to help mitigate coronavirus spread and practice 6-foot social distancing and maintain proper hygiene and handwashing.
Yet, the same issues from 100 years ago are debated today.
APPLES TO ORANGES?
The COVID-19 pandemic, regretfully, is in its infancy. With 474 days to compare COVID-19 to the Spanish Flu outbreak, the data is expected to change significantly as health officials believe at least one more spike is on the horizon.
At the end of December 2020, the Indiana State Department of Health’s data for Clay County continued to show a RED status with a high spread level. Of Clay County’s total population of 26,255, a little more than 17,000 people were tested, with 9,248 tested once and 1,907 confirmed to have COVID-19 since March. Most of the positive cases have or are currently in the recovery process. However, 31 deaths (the most recent on December 31, 2020) were confirmed related to COVID-19 complications.